Nikkei 225 (^N225, Tokyo) closes below 65,500 points on August 28, 2026 (confirmed by JPX/Nikkei Indexes close or Bloomberg)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. August 2026
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Predicted for 28. August 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Nikkei 225 closed at ~65,900–66,016 on August 20/21, 2026 (after chip sell-off). Yen appreciation to USD/JPY <157.00 (expected, see prediction #3) weighs on export-heavy Nikkei constituents (Toyota, Sony, Fanuc): each 1% yen appreciation typically reduces Nikkei earnings by 1–2%. At –1.2% USD/JPY decline, that structurally implies –1.5–2.4% for the index — enough to push from 66,016 to below 65,500. Counterweight: global risk-on post NVDA/CRM earnings rally. Historically yen effect dominates during sharp FX moves. No Polymarket market on Nikkei levels.
Data basis for this prediction
- VantageMarkets/CNBC: Nikkei 225 schließt bei ~65.900 nach Chip-Selloff (20. August 2026)
- TradingEconomics: USD/JPY 158,86 – Yen-Aufwertungsrisiko durch Jackson Hole (21. August 2026)
- Bloomberg: Historische Korrelation Nikkei/USD/JPY – je 1 % Yen-Stärke ca. –1–2 % Nikkei (2024–2026)
- Offene Plattformprognose: EUR/USD >1,1720 am 28. Aug – impliziert breite USD-Schwäche / Yen-Stärke
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Nikkei 225 schloss am 28. August bei ca. 66.262 Punkten, klar über 65.500.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,591 on 10 September 2026 (-0.59%), weighed by high oil prices (Brent $105.71) and US-Iran tensions. The probability of a 25bp FOMC rate hike on 16 September stands at 62% (CME FedWatch), Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 56% – largely priced in. Historically, markets react more moderately to anticipated rate moves than to surprises. The 7,500 threshold equals a 1.2% drop over seven trading days – unlikely from an anticipated hike alone. Main risk: hawkish FOMC statement or acute Gulf escalation.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.