Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) beats Q2 2026 total revenue consensus of approx. $12.58 billion (report after close 16 July 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. July 2026
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Predicted for 17. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Netflix reports after market close today (16 July 2026). Analyst consensus stands at $12.58B total revenue (+13.8% YoY, per S&P Global). Polymarket shows a 72.5% beat probability. Netflix guides for 32.6% operating margin and is on track for $3B in ad revenue in 2026 (+100% YoY). Broader earnings tailwind: all five major US banks beat consensus this week (JPMorgan: record US profit; Goldman Sachs +39% revenue YoY). Q1 2026 results already showed +16% revenue YoY.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 72,5 % Beat-Wahrscheinlichkeit Q2 2026 (Stand 16.07.2026)
- S&P Global / CNBC: Netflix Q2 2026 Umsatz-Konsens $12,58 Mrd. (16.07.2026)
- Netflix Q1 2026 Shareholder Letter: +16 % Revenue YoY (s22.q4cdn.com, 16.04.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Netflix Q2-2026-Umsatz betrug $12,56 Mrd. und verfehlte damit den Konsens von ~$12,58 Mrd. knapp. Quellen: Variety, Deadline, Benzinga
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.