Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reports Q3-FY2026 total revenue above $12.9 billion — earnings October 20, 2026 after market close, confirmed via Netflix IR or Bloomberg by October 21, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. October 2026
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Predicted for 20. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Analyst consensus for Netflix Q3-FY2026 revenue is $12.88 billion (TipRanks); company guidance is $12.86 billion (+11.7% YoY). Exceeding $12.90 billion requires only a ~$20M beat (+0.2% above consensus) — well below the historical average beat of +1.1–1.4% across the prior four quarters. Q3 benefited from: (1) continued Ad-tier subscriber growth, (2) live event programming, and (3) international expansion into Southeast Asia and Latin America. EPS consensus: $0.822 (+39% YoY). Netflix beat revenue consensus in each of the last four quarters. No Polymarket market found.
Data basis for this prediction
- Netflix Q3-FY2026 Analyst-Konsens Umsatz: 12,88 Mrd. USD; EPS: 0,822 USD (+39 % YoY) — TipRanks, Oktober 2026
- Netflix Q3-FY2026 Company-Guidance: 12,86 Mrd. USD (+11,7 % YoY) — Netflix Investor Relations
- Netflix Earnings Date: 20. Oktober 2026 nach Börsenschluss — MarketBeat
- Netflix historische Umsatz-Beat-Rate: 4/4 letzter Quartale (Ø +1,2 % über Konsens) — Bloomberg 2025–2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Netflix meldete für Q3 FY2026 (berichtet am 20. Oktober 2026) einen Gesamtumsatz von 12,87 Mrd. USD – damit verfehlte das Ergebnis die Schwelle von >12,90 Mrd. USD um rund 30 Mio. USD. Der Umsatz lag nahezu exakt auf Höhe des Analysten-Konsenses (12,88 Mrd. USD) und leicht über der eigenen Guidance (12,86 Mrd. USD), aber nicht darüber hinaus. Netflix erzielte also keinen nennenswerten Revenue-Beat. EPS war mit 0,87 USD (vs. Konsens 0,82 USD) besser als erwartet, und die Operating Margin von 34,6 % übertraf die Prognosen, aber der absolute Umsatz überschritt 12,90 Mrd. USD nicht. Quellen: SEC Form 8-K Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001065280/000106528026000290/ex991_q326.htm), Quiverquant (https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Netflix+($NFLX)+Reports+Q3+Revenue+of+$12.87+Billion,+EPS+of+$0.87), Beancount.io Analyse (https://beancount.io/blog/2026/10/20/netflix-fy2026-q3-earnings-analysis)
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
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CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.