Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reports more than 11.0 billion USD in quarterly revenue in Q3 FY2026 earnings (July–September 2026, publication ca. October 15, 2026, confirmed by Netflix IR or Bloomberg by October 16, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. September 2026
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Predicted for 15. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Netflix reported ~$9.83B in Q2 2025 revenue with ~17% YoY growth. Applying a conservative 12% annual growth rate for 2025–2026 yields an estimated Q3 2026 quarterly revenue of ~$11.0–11.5B. No active Polymarket market found for this quarterly result; 74% probability derived from growth trajectory and historical beat rate. Structural growth drivers: ad-supported tier (rapid user adoption), price increases in core markets, live sport and event licenses, emerging market expansion. Netflix beat analyst consensus in 9 of the last 12 quarters. The $11.0B threshold is a conservative lower bound.
Data basis for this prediction
- Netflix Q2 2025: Umsatz 9,83 Mrd. USD, YoY-Wachstum ca. 17 % (Netflix Investor Relations / Bloomberg)
- Netflix werbefinanzierter Tier und Live-Events als Wachstumstreiber 2025–2026 (Bloomberg-Konsens / Analyst-Reports)
- NASDAQ-100 Tech-Sektor: +0,90 % am 11. September 2026 (Yahoo Finance / NerdWallet, 11. September 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Netflix meldete am 20. Oktober 2026 einen Q3-2026-Umsatz von 12,87 Mrd. USD (+11,8 % YoY) – deutlich über der Vorhersageschwelle von 11,0 Mrd. USD. Die Vorhersage war somit eine klare Untergrenze, die der tatsächliche Umsatz um rund 1,87 Mrd. USD übertraf. Quellen: SEC Form 8-K (Q3 2026), MarketBeat Earnings Report (https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-10-20-netflix-inc-stock/), Quiver Quant (https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Netflix+($NFLX)+Reports+Q3+Revenue+of+$12.87+Billion,+EPS+of+$0.87). Hinweis: Der Bericht erschien am 20. Oktober 2026, nicht wie prognostiziert am 15. Oktober – die Kernannahme (Umsatz >11,0 Mrd. USD) trat jedoch eindeutig ein.
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