Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reports Q3 FY2026 total revenue of more than $12.86 billion in its quarterly report (October 20, 2026), beating its own company guidance (confirmed by Netflix Investor Relations or Bloomberg by October 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Netflix guided Q3 2026 at $12.86 billion — below the then-prevailing analyst consensus of ~$13.0B, triggering a ~9% stock decline after the Q2 report. Current analyst consensus has since adjusted to ~$12.88B (Yahoo Finance, 37 analysts; range: $12.80B–$13.03B). Q3 2024 came in at $9.83B, Q3 2025 at $11.51B — implying ~11.9% YoY growth for Q3 2026. Netflix consistently beats its own quarterly revenue guidance by a small margin (typical beat: $50–150M). Supporting factors: FIFA World Cup 2026 streaming rights (summer/fall effect), ongoing advertising tier monetization, price increases across EMEA/APAC. Threshold of $12.86B matches the company's own guidance exactly; own estimate: ~60% probability for a moderate beat.
Data basis for this prediction
- Netflix Q3 2026 Unternehmensführung — Netflix Q2 2026 Earnings (17.07.2026, via GuruFocus / Yahoo Finance): 12,86 Mrd. USD
- Netflix Q3 2026 Analysten-Konsens — Yahoo Finance, 37 Analysten (27.09.2026): ~12,88 Mrd. USD, Bandbreite 12,80–13,03 Mrd.
- Netflix Q3 2024 Ist-Umsatz: 9,825 Mrd. USD; Q3 2025 Ist-Umsatz: 11,51 Mrd. USD (Netflix IR)
- Netflix Q3 2026 Berichtsdatum — StockTitan / Netflix IR (27.09.2026): 20. Oktober 2026, ca. 16:01 Uhr ET
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Netflix meldete am 20. Oktober 2026 einen Q3-2026-Umsatz von 12,87 Mrd. USD – damit wurde die eigene Unternehmensführung von exakt 12,86 Mrd. USD knapp übertroffen (+~10 Mio. USD). Die Beat-Marge fiel deutlich kleiner aus als die historisch typischen 50–150 Mio. USD, was erklärt, warum The Globe and Mail und Yahoo Finance den Abstand als 'in line with estimates' bezeichneten. Das YoY-Wachstum betrug 11,9 %, konsistent mit den Erwartungen. Quellen: SEC Form 8-K (sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001065280/000106528026000290/ex991_q326.htm), beancount.io Q3-2026-Analyse ($12.87B), MarketBeat Earnings Report 20. Oktober 2026.
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
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