📈 Economy · Next Week

NBS China Manufacturing PMI August 2026 (release September 1, 2026): Result below 50.0 points (contraction)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 1. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

58%

China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI (covering large/state enterprises) has oscillated around the 50-point mark since 2025, last reading 49–50. It is conceptually distinct from the Caixin PMI (SME-focused, predicted >50 in an open prediction). US-China trade tensions (Section 122 global tariff, US non-renewal of USMCA signaling broader protectionism) and weak domestic demand weigh more on state enterprises. NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI was 50.1 in March 2026 (marginal expansion). No Polymarket market for this threshold.

Data basis for this prediction

China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI März 2026: 50,1 Pkte (FXStreet / Trading Economics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI fiel früh 2026 auf 4-Monatstiefs (Trading Economics)
US Section 122 Importzoll 10 % / USMCA-Nicht-Verlängerung (CFR Tariff Tracker, Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Identische Datenbasis wie id 2145/1916: NBS Manufacturing PMI August 2026 = 49,8 Punkte (unter 50,0, Kontraktion). Daten wurden am 31. August 2026 veröffentlicht. Schwellenwert klar unterschritten.

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