Moderaterna (M, Sweden) wins more than 17.0% of votes cast at the Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 31. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The current PolitPro Election Trend (August 30, 2026) shows Moderaterna at 17.9% with 65 projected seats. The latest Demoskop poll (August 24) gives 17.2%; Ipsos (May 2026) gave 19.0%. The poll average is ~17.5%, placing the 17.0% threshold just below. Historically, Moderaterna slightly outperforms polls (well-mobilized core electorate). As the third-largest party behind S (~34%) and SD (~18–20%), the projection appears stable; falling below 17% would constitute an electoral disaster.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Sweden Election Trend 30.8.2026: Moderaterna 17,9 %, 65 Sitze projiziert
- PolitPro Demoskop-Umfrage Schweden 24.8.2026: Moderaterna 17,2 %, 63 Sitze
- Wikipedia 'Opinion polling 2026 Swedish general election': Ipsos Mai 2026 Moderaterna 19 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.