🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Moderaterna (M, Sweden) receives more than 16.0% of votes cast in the Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 30. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

80%

The most recent Demoskop poll (August 24, 2026) shows Moderaterna at 17.2%; the PolitPro Election Trend places them at 17.9%. The party leads the governing centre-right alliance under PM Ulf Kristersson. The 16.0% threshold sits 1.2 percentage points below the polling anchor and would imply the party's worst post-war result — unlikely without a dramatic change in the remaining two weeks. No direct market quote found on Polymarket/Kalshi for this specific outcome.

Data basis for this prediction

Demoskop-Umfrage (24. August 2026): Moderaterna 17,2 % (PolitPro.eu)
PolitPro Election Trend August 2026: Moderaterna 17,9 %, 63 prognostizierte Riksdag-Sitze
Wikipedia: 2026 Swedish general election – Riksdag-Wahl 13. September 2026

Verdict: Hit

Moderaterna erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut Valmyndigheten (val.se) und übereinstimmenden Medienberichten (SVT, TV4, Wikipedia) 19,8 % der Stimmen (70 von 349 Mandaten) – deutlich über der Schwelle von 16,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat klar ein; das Ergebnis lag sogar über den Umfragewerten von 17,2 % bzw. 17,9 %, die als Grundlage dienten. Quellen: val.se (Valmyndigheten), en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election, sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riksdagsvalet_i_Sverige_2026.

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