🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Moderaterna (M) receives more than 15.0% of votes cast in the Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026) (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 5. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

72%

The Riksdag election takes place on 13 September 2026. Current polls (August-September 2026) show Moderaterna at 16.4% – approximately 1.4 percentage points above the 15.0% threshold. This falls within the typical Swedish polling margin of error (±2-3 percentage points). No explicit Polymarket/Metaculus market for Moderaterna's vote share. Historical results: 19.8% (2022), 23.3% (2018) show a declining trend due to SD strength, but Moderaterna remains stable as the second-largest party in the Tidö bloc. The Tidö governing coalition overall polls at 44.6% (opposition: 52.7%).

Data basis for this prediction

Riksdag-Wahlumfragen (August–September 2026): Moderaterna 16,4% (Demoskop/Wikipedia, Stand 5.9.2026)
Tidö-Koalition gesamt 44,6% vs. Oppositionsblock 52,7% (Demoskop/SCB, September 2026)
Moderaterna Wahlergebnisse: 23,3% (2018), 19,8% (2022) – Rückgangstrend (Valmyndigheten)
Schwedisches Wahlrecht: Valmyndigheten veröffentlicht vorläufige Ergebnisse innerhalb von 24h (val.se)

Verdict: Hit

Moderaterna erhielt bei der schwedischen Riksdag-Wahl vom 13. September 2026 laut Valmyndigheten (val.se) und Wikipedia 19,85 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 15,0 %. Das Ergebnis lag sogar über dem in der Prognose genannten Umfragewert von 16,4 %; Moderaterna steigerte sich gegenüber 2022 (19,1 %) leicht und wurde zweitstärkste Partei hinter den Sozialdemokraten (28,02 %). Quellen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election und https://www.val.se/english/election-results/elections-to-the-riksdag-and-regional-and-municipal-councils/election-results-2026

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