🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Missouri Amendment 3 fails — voters reject abortion ban

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 4. October 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

82%

Missouri voters will decide on Amendment 3 on November 3, 2026 — a legislatively referred measure that would reverse the abortion rights enshrined by voters in 2024 and impose a broad abortion ban. Kalshi rates the probability of Amendment 3 passing at 14–19% (as of early October 2026), implying a rejection probability of ~81–86%. Polling shows 43% support, 44% opposition (±3 margin of error). Since the Dobbs ruling in 2022, US voters have rejected abortion restrictions at state level in seven consecutive votes (Kansas, KY, MT, MI, VT, CA, OH) — a robust historical trend. No specific Polymarket market found for this ballot measure.

Data basis for this prediction

Kalshi Ballot Markets: Missouri Amendment 3, Passierwahrscheinlichkeit 14–19% (OctagonAI-Analyse, Stand 3. Oktober 2026)
OctagonAI Ballot Markets: Missouri Amendment 3, Umfragen 43% dafür / 44% dagegen (Stand 4. Oktober 2026)
Post-Dobbs Ballot Track Record: 7/7 Staaten lehnten restriktive Abtreibungsmaßnahmen seit 2022 ab (AP Elections, Stand Oktober 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage trat klar ein: Missouri Amendment 3 wurde am 3. November 2026 von den Wähler:innen abgelehnt – 55,5 % stimmten dagegen, 44,5 % dafür. Das im Jahr 2024 verankerte Recht auf Schwangerschaftsabbruch bleibt damit bestehen. Der historische Trend (Ablehnung von Abtreibungsrestriktionen in Volksabstimmungen seit Dobbs) setzte sich fort; das Ergebnis fiel sogar deutlicher aus als 2024. Quellen: KOMU News, Outlook India, Springfield Daily Citizen, Wikipedia (2026 Missouri Amendment 3).

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