Miljöpartiet (MP, Greens) wins more than 6.0% of votes at the Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026) and enters parliament (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 6. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
PolitPro election trend (September 3, 2026) shows MP at 7.2%; Infostat (September 1, 2026) at 7.5%; Ipsos (May 2026) at 6.0%. MP sits well above Sweden's 4% threshold and comfortably above the 6% prediction mark. Failure would require a polling error of >1.2 percentage points — rare for established Swedish pollsters. No Polymarket market; electoral market implied probabilities place MP clearly in parliament. Forecast based on consistent polling data across multiple institutes.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Wahltrend Schweden: MP 7,2 % (Stand 3. Sep 2026) – politpro.eu
- Infostat-Umfrage (1. Sep 2026): MP 7,5 % – politpro.eu
- Ipsos-Umfrage (25. Mai 2026): MP 6,0 % – politpro.eu (Referenzpunkt)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.