Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) beats the adjusted Q4 FY2026 EPS analyst consensus on July 29, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Microsoft confirmed Q4 FY2026 results (fiscal quarter ending June 30, 2026) on July 29, 2026 after market close (Microsoft IR / stocktitan.net July 8, 2026). Azure AI Cloud grows >30% YoY; Copilot monetization in enterprise accelerating. MSFT has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in more than 20 consecutive quarters. No Polymarket market found; historical beat rate >90% as anchor.
Data basis for this prediction
- MSFT Q4 FY2026-Ergebnis: 29. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss (Microsoft IR / stocktitan.net 08.07.2026)
- Azure KI-Cloud-Wachstum >30 % YoY (Microsoft FY2026 Q3 Earnings April 2026)
- MSFT EPS-Beat-Rate: >90 % (FactSet / MarketBeat)
- Microsoft Ankündigung Ergebnisdatum (news.microsoft.com 08.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Microsoft berichtete am 29. Juli 2026 Q4-GJ2026-Ergebnisse und übertraf den bereinigten EPS-Analystenkonsens klar: Adjusted EPS lag bei $4,74 gegenüber der Schätzung von $4,24 – ein Beat von ~11,8 %. Der Umsatz betrug $90,0 Mrd. (Konsens: $87,62 Mrd.). Treiber waren Cloud/Azure-Wachstum sowie ein einmaliger Investitionsgewinn von $3,2 Mrd. aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung und geringere Kosten aus einem freiwilligen Vorruhestandsprogramm. Quellen: CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/07/29/microsoft-msft-q4-earnings-report-2026.html), Shacknews, Quiver Quantitative, Microsoft IR.
💻 Technology
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.