Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) beats the adjusted non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. USD 4.21 per share in its Q4 FY2026 earnings report (July 29, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. July 2026
·
Predicted for 29. July 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Analysts expect Q4 FY2026 adjusted EPS of approx. USD 4.21 (Nasdaq/TipRanks consensus, July 2026) — implying YoY growth of ~15% vs. USD 3.65 in Q4 FY2025. AI cloud momentum (Azure >39% per open prediction) supports margins. Microsoft beat EPS consensus in eight consecutive quarters. 36 analysts cover MSFT with 'Strong Buy' consensus, avg. price target USD 560. This prediction covers total EPS — not Azure growth (separate open prediction).
Data basis for this prediction
- MSFT Q4 FY2026 EPS-Konsens: 4,21 USD; Umsatz-Konsens: 87,62 Mrd. USD (Nasdaq / TipRanks, Juli 2026)
- MSFT Earnings Date: 29. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss (Microsoft IR, StockTitan, Juli 2026)
- TipRanks: 36 Analysten, Strong Buy, Ø Kursziel 560 USD (Juli 2026)
- Yahoo Finance: MSFT FY26 Q3 Press Release – Q4-Vorschau und AI-Segment-Wachstum (2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Microsoft meldete am 29. Juli 2026 einen bereinigten Non-GAAP-EPS von 4,74 USD für Q4 FY2026 – ein klares Beat gegenüber dem Konsens von ~4,21–4,24 USD (+11,8 %). Der tatsächliche EPS lag damit 30 % über dem Vorjahreswert (3,65 USD) und übertraf die Erwartungen deutlich. Begünstigende Faktoren: ein Buchgewinn von 3,2 Mrd. USD aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung, Azure-Wachstum von 43 % (über dem ~40 %-Konsens), und geringere Kosten aus dem Voluntary Retirement Program. Quellen: Microsoft Investor Relations (microsoft.com/investor), CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/07/29/microsoft-msft-q4-earnings-report-2026.html), StockTitan, Tickeron.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.