Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) beats Q4 FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. USD 3.50 per share (~July 29, 2026, after market close, confirmed by Microsoft press release)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Microsoft reports Q4 FY2026 results (~July 29, April–June 2026 quarter, fiscal year end June 30). Non-GAAP EPS consensus is approximately USD 3.50. Microsoft has beaten EPS consensus for at least 18 consecutive quarters. Azure Cloud continues to grow >35% YoY driven by AI workloads (OpenAI partnership, Copilot). Analog: Alphabet beat its consensus by 216% on July 22, 2026 (EPS $9.11 vs. $2.89 consensus), primarily via Google Cloud (+82%) and Anthropic stake. A similar AI-infrastructure tailwind supports Microsoft's Azure. No Polymarket contract identified for this specific event.
Data basis for this prediction
- Microsoft Q3 FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS: 3,46 USD — bestätigt (Microsoft IR, Jan–Mär 2026)
- Alphabet Q2 2026 EPS: 9,11 USD vs. 2,89 USD Konsens — Google Cloud +82% (9to5google, 22.7.2026)
- Microsoft: 18+ konsekutive Quartale mit EPS-Beat (historische Serie)
- Azure AI-Wachstum: >35% YoY durch OpenAI/Copilot-Nachfrage (CNBC, Q1 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Microsoft berichtete am 29. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss seinen Q4-FY2026-Ergebnis und übertraf den EPS-Konsens deutlich: Non-GAAP-EPS von 4,74 USD vs. Konsens-Erwartung von 4,24 USD (+11,8 %). Der in der Vorhersage genannte Konsens von ~3,50 USD war allerdings veraltet/zu niedrig; der tatsächliche Konsens lag bei ~4,24 USD. Der Kerninhalt der Vorhersage – ein klares EPS-Beat – trat vollständig ein. Treiber waren Azure-Wachstum von 43 % YoY (Azure-Jahresumsatz erstmals über 100 Mrd. USD), ein 3,2-Mrd.-USD-Gewinn aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung und geringere VRP-Kosten. Die MSFT-Aktie stieg daraufhin um ~8 %. Quellen: Microsoft Pressemitteilung (news.microsoft.com, 29.07.2026), Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Investing.com.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.