Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) reports total revenue exceeding USD 93.0 billion in Q1 FY2027 earnings (July–September 2026, expected release ca. 28 October 2026, confirmed by Microsoft Investor Relations or Bloomberg by 29 October 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. September 2026
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Predicted for 28. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Wall Street consensus for Microsoft Q1 FY2027 (July–September 2026) stands at USD 90.59 billion in revenue. Microsoft has beaten consensus estimates in six consecutive quarters by an average of 5–6% (most recently Q4 FY2026: EPS USD 4.74 vs USD 4.47 consensus, +6.1%). At a similar beat rate, the implied actual revenue is around USD 95 billion. The threshold of USD 93.0 billion is 2.6% above consensus and well below a typical beat — leaving substantial margin of safety. Azure growth (+32–35% YoY per analyst models) and Copilot subscription expansion are the key drivers. No Polymarket contract found.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wall-Street-Konsensschätzung MSFT Q1 FY2027 Umsatz: 90,59 Mrd. USD (Investing.com / TipRanks, Stand 22. September 2026)
- Microsoft Q4 FY2026 tatsächliches EPS: 4,74 USD vs. Konsens 4,47 USD (+6,1 %) – Bloomberg, August 2026
- TipRanks MSFT Earnings History: 6/6 Quartale Beat, Ø +5,2 % (Stand September 2026)
- Wall Street Horizon – MSFT Q1 FY2027 Earnings Date: ca. 27.–29. Oktober 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Microsoft meldete am 28. Oktober 2026 für Q1 FY2027 (Juli–September 2026) einen Gesamtumsatz von 92,3 Mrd. USD – was den Analysten-Konsens von ~90,6 Mrd. USD deutlich übertraf (+1,9 %), jedoch unter dem Schwellenwert von 93,0 Mrd. USD der Vorhersage blieb. Die Beat-Rate gegenüber dem Konsens betrug ~1,9 %, deutlich geringer als die historisch angenommenen 5–6 %. Quellen: Microsoft Investor Relations (microsoft.com/investor/earnings/fy-2027-q1) sowie GuruFocus-Meldung (gurufocus.com/news/9148505).
💻 Technology
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
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CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.