Meta Platforms releases Llama 4 'Behemoth' model (>500B parameters) as a public open-weight model by August 31, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. August 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Meta released the first Llama 4 variants (Scout, 14–17B; Maverick, >400B MoE) on Hugging Face in April 2026. The flagship 'Behemoth' model — announced with >1 trillion training parameters — remains in internal development. Competitive pressure from xAI Grok 5 (due August 2026) and OpenAI GPT-5 (H2 2026) increases Meta's incentive for a timely release. The Llama 4 release cadence suggests a 3–4 month cycle; from Scout/Maverick (April) to end of August is ~4 months. Downside: infrastructure costs and safety evaluations may delay the release. Base rate: ~35–40%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Meta Llama 4 Scout & Maverick: Veröffentlichung April 2026 auf Hugging Face (Meta AI Blog, April 2026)
- Meta AI Roadmap: 'Behemoth' (>1T Parameter) in Entwicklung, Release-Datum offen (Meta Earnings Call Q1 2026 / The Verge)
- Wettbewerb: xAI Grok 5 bis 31.08.2026 angekündigt; OpenAI GPT-5 für H2 2026 geplant (Tech-Pressemitteilungen, 2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Meta hat Llama 4 Behemoth aufgrund von MoE-Routing-Problemen bei 2T-Skalierung zurückgezogen; keine Open-Weight-Veröffentlichung erfolgt. Als Ersatz dient intern Muse Spark (closed-source). Quellen: Manifold Markets, Serenities AI, Aimadetools.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.