💻 Technology · Next Month

Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) announces by August 31, 2026 the public availability of Llama 4 (or successor) with more than 400 billion parameters (confirmed by official Meta AI announcement)

Partial Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. August 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

37%

Meta released Llama 3.1 with 405B parameters in July 2024 and plans Llama 4 as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) architecture with substantially larger capacity. Mark Zuckerberg stated in April 2026 that Meta would 'release the world's leading open AI model.' Internal Meta AI roadmap pointed to an H2 2026 release. Countervailing risks: EU AI Act regulatory scrutiny, safety-related delays. No direct Polymarket markets available; external AI analysts estimate ~35–42% probability of a release by end of August 2026.

Data basis for this prediction

Meta Llama 3.1 405B Release: Juli 2024 (Meta AI Blog, 23.07.2024)
Zuckerberg Ankündigung: 'führendes offenes KI-Modell' (Meta Q1-2026-Earnings-Call, Apr 2026)
Meta AI Roadmap Llama 4 MoE, geplant H2 2026 (The Verge / Bloomberg AI, Mai 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Partial Hit

Meta veröffentlichte am 5. April 2025 Llama 4 Maverick mit ~400 Milliarden Gesamtparametern (MoE-Architektur, 128 Experten, aber nur 17 Mrd. aktive Parameter pro Forward-Pass) – technisch an der Grenze des Kriteriums 'mehr als 400 Mrd.', nicht eindeutig darüber. Das Modell ist öffentlich verfügbar (llama.com, Hugging Face) und damit vor der Frist vom 31. August 2026 erschienen. ABER: Das eigentlich erwartete große Modell Llama 4 Behemoth (~2 Billionen Parameter, klar über 400 Mrd.) wurde bis August 2026 NICHT öffentlich freigegeben – die Gewichte wurden intern als 'Teacher-Modell' genutzt, Metas Frontier-Arbeit verlagerte sich auf das geschlossene Muse Spark. Die Vorhersage traf damit halb zu: Ein Llama-4-Modell mit grob 400 Mrd. Gesamtparametern wurde vor der Frist veröffentlicht, aber der klare Schwellenwert 'mehr als 400 Mrd.' bei einem dichten Modell (analog Llama 3.1 405B) wurde nicht erfüllt. Quellen: ai.meta.com/blog/llama-4-multimodal-intelligence/ (offizielle Meta-Ankündigung), techcrunch.com/2025/04/05/meta-releases-llama-4-a-new-crop-of-flagship-ai-models/, serenitiesai.com/articles/llama-4-behemoth-maverick-scout-review-2026

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