Meta Connect 2026: Meta Quest 4 officially announced at a base price of $499 or less
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. September 2026
·
Predicted for 24. September 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
Meta Connect (September 23–24, Menlo Park) is Meta's flagship annual hardware event. Quest pricing history: Quest 2 ($299, 2020), Quest 3 ($499, October 2023), Quest 3S lite ($299, October 2024). A new premium Quest 4 flagship historically follows the $499 pattern. Competitive pressure from ByteDance/Pico (~22% market share, IDC Q2 2026) and Meta's stated goal of mass-market VR penetration argue against a price increase. Quest 4 being announced is already an open prediction; this forecast targets the ≤$499 price level specifically. No Polymarket market found; estimate based on product-cycle analysis.
Data basis for this prediction
- Meta Quest 3 Launch-Preis: 499 USD (Oktober 2023, Meta Newsroom)
- Meta Quest 3S Launch-Preis: 299 USD (Oktober 2024, Meta Newsroom)
- IDC: ByteDance/Pico VR-Marktanteil ~22% Q2 2026 (IDC.com, Aug. 2026)
- Meta Connect 2026 Termin: 23.–24. September 2026 (Meta Newsroom)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Meta Quest 4 wurde bei Meta Connect 2026 nicht angekündigt, somit gibt es auch keinen Basispreis. Quest 4 bleibt auf H2 2027 datiert.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.