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💻 Technology · Next Month

Meta Connect 2026 (September 23, 2026, Menlo Park CA): Meta officially announces Orion AR glasses as first commercial consumer product with a concrete launch date by Q1 2027 and retail price (confirmed by Meta press release or The Verge by September 24, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. September 2026 · Predicted for 23. September 2026 · Based on: Speculative
Probability
28%

Meta is distributing the Orion prototype to select developers in 2026. According to current reports (Tom's Guide, UploadVR, 2026), the actual consumer product is the successor 'Artemis', planned for 2027. An official price and launch announcement at Connect 2026 is therefore possible but uncertain. Existing Connect 2026 predictions (Meta Quest 4, Ray-Ban Gen 3) are not affected. Risk: Meta may announce Orion/Artemis only as a developer preview without a consumer price tag. Calibrated at ~28%.

Data basis for this prediction
  • UploadVR: Meta Orion 2026 nur für Entwickler verfügbar (2026)
  • Tom's Guide: Meta Artemis Konsumprodukt für 2027 geplant (2026)
  • Meta Connect 2026 Termin bestätigt: 23. September 2026, Menlo Park CA
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Meta hat die Orion/Artemis-AR-Brille bei Meta Connect 2026 nicht als kommerzielles Konsumentenprodukt mit Verkaufspreis und Marktstart bis Q1 2027 angekündigt. Post-event-Berichte bestätigen: kein Consumer-Launch angekündigt.
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💻 Technology ✦ AI

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) beats Q4 FY2026 EPS consensus of $4.06 per share — earnings report November 12, 2026 after market close (confirmed by Applied Materials Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 13, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.

72%
Next Week · Predicted for 12. Nov 2026
💻 Technology ✦ AI

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) closes above $185.00 per share on at least one trading day in November 2026 — confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by December 1, 2026

PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.

42%
Next Month · Predicted for 30. Nov 2026
💻 Technology ✦ AI

Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) closes below $100.00 per share on November 10, 2026 (confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by November 11, 2026)

CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.

62%
Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026