Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): SPD receives more than 27.0% of votes cast
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls for the MV state election show the SPD under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig at 29% (INSA, August 13, 2026; confirmed by Infratest dimap/NDR, July 2026: also 29%). Schwesig's strong regional brand equity cushions the national SPD slump (nationally ~20–23%) significantly. In 2021, MV's SPD won 39.6%; even a substantial decline leaves it above 27%. Open predictions: AfD >35%, CDU <12% in MV. No Polymarket market found for MV individual results.
Data basis for this prediction
- SPD MV-Landtagswahl 2021: 39,6% (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)
- INSA-Umfrage MV 13.08.2026: SPD 29% (Wahlrecht.de/Dawum.de)
- Infratest dimap/NDR MV-Umfrage Juli 2026: SPD ebenfalls 29% (Dawum.de)
Verdict: Hit
Die SPD erzielte laut offiziellem amtlichem Endgebnis (bekanntgegeben 30. September 2026) 35,5% der gültigen Zweitstimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 27,0%. Stärkste Partei wurde die AfD mit 38,2%, Die Linke 6,5%, Grüne 5,7%. Quelle: Landtag Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (landtag-mv.de, 'Landtagswahl 2026: Endgültiges amtliches Wahlergebnis steht fest') sowie Wikipedia 'Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026'.
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