🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): SPD receives more than 25.0% of votes cast (confirmed by MV state returning officer)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

83%

Three consistent polls (INSA/Nordkurier Aug 13: SPD 29%; Infratest dimap/NDR Jul 9: SPD 29%; INSA/Nordkurier Jun 22: SPD 28%) show SPD stable at 28–29%. The 25% threshold is ~4 percentage points below the current polling average — even with a −3 pp miss, SPD would be at 25–26%. Minister-President Manuela Schwesig (SPD) benefits from structural incumbent advantages; the party polls well above the national average in MV, backed by strong state structures. No prediction market available. Forecast is based on polling consistency across three survey cycles.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA/Nordkurier: SPD 29 %, AfD 36 % (Stand 13.08.2026; Feldarbeit 4.–11. Aug., n=1.000)
Infratest dimap/NDR: SPD 29 %, AfD 36 % (09.07.2026; Feldarbeit 2.–6. Jul., n=1.167)
INSA/Nordkurier: SPD 28 %, AfD 35 % (22.06.2026; n=1.000)
wahlrecht.de: Historische Umfrageübersicht MV 2026 (August 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 35,5 % der Stimmen (360.393 Zweitstimmen) – weit über der Schwelle von 25,0 %. Die Vorhersage traf klar ein; die SPD lag sogar ~6–7 Prozentpunkte über dem ohnehin schon über 25 % liegenden Umfrageschnitt. Quelle: Landtag Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis) sowie wahlrecht.de.

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