Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026): FDP fails the 5% threshold and does not enter the state parliament (confirmed by state returning officer MV)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Forsa (24 August 2026) measures the FDP in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 3% – 200 basis points below the threshold. Infratest dimap (9 July 2026) also shows the FDP clearly below the bar. The FDP has not been in the Schwerin parliament since 2011 and has failed to clear 5% in any MV election since then. The structural loss of liberal voters in eastern Germany to AfD and BSW leaves no trend reversal in sight. No dedicated prediction market available; historical evidence and current polling support a probability >85%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forsa MV-Landtagswahl-Umfrage: FDP 3% (24. August 2026, t-online.de)
- Infratest dimap MV: FDP unter 5% (9. Juli 2026)
- MV Landtagswahl 2021 Ergebnis: FDP 2,0%, nicht im Landtag (Landeswahlleiter MV)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.