🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): CDU receives less than 12.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Returning Officer)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

87%

The CDU polls at only 10% in current MV election surveys (INSA, August 2026) – 2 percentage points below the 12.0% prediction threshold. AfD (36%) and SPD (29%) dominate; the CDU is structurally weakened in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. It received 13.3% there in 2021; current polling shows a further decline of approximately 3 percentage points. Even with a statistical error of ±2%, the 12% threshold is hard to breach. No Polymarket market for German state parliaments available. Forecast: 87%.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA Umfrage MV August 2026: CDU 10 %, AfD 36 %, SPD 29 %, Linke 11 % (Stand Aug 2026)
dawum.de: MV Landtagswahl Wahltrend 2026 (Stand 26.08.2026)
t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026 – Wahlumfrage Trend (Aug 2026)
Landtagswahl MV 2021: CDU 13,3 % (Landeswahlleiter MV, historischer Vergleich)

Verdict: Hit

Die CDU erzielte laut amtlichem Endergebnis (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) nur 4,9 % der Stimmen – weit unter der Vorhersageschwelle von 12,0 %. Sie verfehlte sogar die Fünf-Prozent-Hürde und schied erstmals in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik aus einem Landesparlament aus. AfD (38,2 %) und SPD (35,5 %) dominierten das Ergebnis. Die Vorhersage ist klar eingetreten; das tatsächliche Ergebnis war sogar deutlich extremer als erwartet. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (amtliches Endergebnis), bpb.de (Hintergrund-aktuell).

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