🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): CDU wins more than 10.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

Current polls for the MV 2026 election place CDU at only 9–10% (Insa August 2026: 10%, Infratest dimap July 2026: 9%), well below the 2021 result of 13.3%. CDU in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is structurally weakened, as the AfD (forecast >32%) has absorbed former CDU voters and the SPD still dominates despite losses. The 10% threshold sits at the upper end of the polling range; late swing and mobilisation effects can add 1–2 percentage points. A result just below 10% remains a scenario.

Data basis for this prediction

MV-Wahl Umfragen 2026: Insa Aug 2026 CDU 10 %; Infratest dimap Juli 2026 CDU 9 % (wahlrecht.de)
MV-Wahl 2021: CDU 13,3 %, SPD 39,6 %, AfD 17,7 % (Landeswahlleiter MV / tagesschau.de)
Cassandra.news-Bestand: AfD MV >32 %, SPD >25 % prognostiziert (Stand 3. Sept 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Die CDU erzielte bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 lediglich 4,9 % der Stimmen – weit unter der Vorhersageschwelle von mehr als 10,0 %. Damit verfehlte sie sogar die 5-%-Sperrklausel und schied erstmals in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik aus einem Landtag aus. Der tatsächliche Einbruch war dramatisch stärker als in den Umfragen signalisiert (zuletzt 9–10 %); die CDU verlor gegenüber 2021 (13,3 %) rund 8,4 Prozentpunkte. Quellen: Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung (bpb.de) – 'CDU verfehlt Einzug in den Landtag'; Landeswahlleiter MV (landtag-mv.de) – vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis.

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