🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Landtag

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

58%

Current poll average for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (aggregated August 2026): BSW at 4.1% — below the 5% threshold. One individual survey (Civey, June 2026) showed 8.0%, indicating high variance. BSW has no established state chapter in MV and weak local infrastructure. Nationally BSW polls at ~5–6%, but in MV, where SPD and AfD dominate, mobilization potential is significantly lower than in Thuringia or Brandenburg (BSW there 15.8% resp. 13.5% in 2024). The 'BSW fails 5%' scenario is most probable, but uncertain.

Data basis for this prediction

MV Wahlumfragen Aggregat August 2026: BSW Ø 4,1% (politpro.eu / Wahlkreisprognose, mehrere Institute)
Civey Einzelumfrage MV Juni 2026: BSW 8,0% (Hochausschlag, Civey)
BSW Thüringen September 2024: 15,8%; BSW Brandenburg September 2024: 13,5% (Landeswahlleiter)
Offene Vorhersagen MV: AfD >30%, SPD >25%, SPD-Koalition ohne AfD (Cassandra.news)

Verdict: Hit

BSW erzielte bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut Wikipedia und ZDF-Ergebnissen 4,8% der Zweitstimmen und verfehlte damit knapp die 5%-Sperrklausel – der Einzug in den Landtag gelang nicht. Die Vorhersage (Scheitern an der Sperrklausel) trat ein. Bemerkenswerterweise scheiterte auch die CDU mit 4,9% – ein historisches Novum. Quelle: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026

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