🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 33.0% of votes cast (confirmed by state returning officer Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 28. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

77%

The current INSA poll (August 4–11, 2026) puts the AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 36%. The state is an AfD stronghold: Saxony-Anhalt polls show 42% (PolitPro, Aug 2026); in Thuringia and Saxony the AfD exceeded 30% in 2024 state elections. With a 3-percentage-point buffer below the polling average, the 33% threshold is solidly calibrated. No Polymarket market for M-V AfD available; methodology: eastern German cross-comparison and current polling aggregate.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, 4.–11. August 2026: AfD 36 %, SPD 29 %, Linke 11 % (t-online.de)
PolitPro M-V Umfrageaggregat August 2026: AfD 34–37 %
Sachsen-Anhalt AfD Umfragedurchschnitt August 2026: 42,3 % (PolitPro, Kontextreferenz)

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis der Landeswahlleitung 38,2 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 33,0 %. Sie wurde damit stärkste Kraft im Landtag. Die Vorhersage war somit klar korrekt; der tatsächliche Wert lag sogar rund 2 Prozentpunkte über dem INSA-Umfragewert von 36 %. Quellen: Landtag MV (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), bpb.de, wahlrecht.de.

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