🏛️ Politics
· Next Month
Morocco parliamentary election (September 23, 2026): Prime Minister Akhannouch's Rassemblement National des Indépendants (RNI) remains the largest party in the House of Representatives (confirmed by Morocco's Interior Ministry or Reuters by September 24, 2026)
Probability
52%
In Morocco's parliamentary election on September 23, 2026, 27 parties compete for 395 seats. PM Akhannouch's RNI enters with the incumbency advantage, a broad organisational network, and credit for implemented reforms. Key challengers are the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) and the reorganising Party for Justice and Development (PJD), regaining strength after its 2021 collapse. No reliable pre-election polling is available; no prediction market quotes exist. The forecast is based on structural incumbency advantages and historical patterns of Moroccan elections (incumbents have almost always led the largest-party ranking since 2011).
Data basis for this prediction
- APAnews: Morocco Sets September 23 for Parliamentary Elections (August 2026)
- Rio Times: Morocco Election 23 September 2026 Overview
- OSCE/ODIHR: Morocco Election Observation Mission Announcement (September 2026)
Verdict: Miss
Die Vorhersage ist klar verfehlt. Bei der Parlamentswahl am 23. September 2026 verlor das RNI von Premierminister Akhannouch deutlich: Es fiel von 102 Sitzen (2021) auf 66 Sitze und landete auf Platz 2. Stärkste Partei wurde das PAM (Parti Authenticité et Modernité) von Fouzi Lekjaa mit 97 Sitzen. Auch die PJD feierte ein starkes Comeback (von 13 auf 54 Sitze). Das marokkanische Innenministerium bestätigte die Ergebnisse. Quellen: atalayar.com (24.09.2026), en.yabiladi.com, ledesk.ma, Al Jazeera (24.09.2026).