Marine Le Pen Publicly Declares Her Candidacy for the French Presidential Election of April 18, 2027 by December 31, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The Paris Court of Appeal on July 7, 2026 reduced Le Pen's ineligibility from 5 years to 45 months with 30 months suspended — effectively a 15-month active ban. Since the first round of the presidential election is April 18, 2027 (President Macron completing his final term), Le Pen would be eligible under this ruling. France 24 and Reuters report the decision reopens her path to candidacy. Main risk: prosecution could appeal to the Court of Cassation, potentially reinstating the ban. Given the RN's clear strategy of fielding Le Pen and her repeated public signals, she is highly likely to make a formal declaration by year-end 2026. No specific Polymarket/Metaculus market found; our estimate: 67%.
Data basis for this prediction
- France 24 – Paris Court of Appeal reduces Le Pen ineligibility to 45 months (07.07.2026)
- France 24 – France sets presidential election date April 18, 2027 (30.06.2026)
- Wikipedia – 2027 French presidential election: First round 18.04.2027 (13.07.2026)
- Reuters – Le Pen appeal ruling: path to 2027 candidacy reopened (07.07.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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