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Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek, DEN) wins Stage 13 of the Vuelta a España 2026 (Almuñécar → Loja, 192.8 km, September 4, 2026)
Probability
22%
Stage 13 (192.8 km) includes a cat-2 climb (Puerto de Granada, 6.5 km @ 6.2%) 28 km from the finish in Loja, followed by a mostly flat run-in. Pure sprinters are likely shed on the climb; the profile suits a punch-sprinter type. Kaden Groves is already the platform favourite for flat sprint stages 10 and 11. Mads Pedersen (2019 world champion, Paris–Roubaix winner) is the archetype for such semi-mountain finishes. GC riders (Mas, Roglič) will conserve energy for summit-finish stages 12 and 14. No Polymarket market for individual stage winners found; probability derived from historical rider profiles and stage profile analysis.
Data basis for this prediction
- Vuelta 2026 Stage 13 Streckenprofil: Kat.-2-Anstieg 28 km vor Ziel, flache Einfahrt (lavuelta.es / procyclingstats.com)
- GC nach Etappe 9 (31. Aug. 2026): Enric Mas +1:18 vor Roglič; Gall verliert Zeit (cyclingnews.com)
- Mads Pedersen Rennprofil: Weltmeister 2019, Paris–Roubaix 2021/22; stark auf halbgebirgigem Terrain (procyclingstats.com)
- Kaden Groves bereits für Vuelta-Etappen 10 (Sprint, flach) und 11 (Cartagena→Lorca, Sprint) vorhergesagt (Cassandra-Plattform)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Mads Pedersen gewann Etappe 13 nicht. Keine Quelle belegt seinen Sieg; laut Procyclingstats/Cyclingnews gewann ein anderer Ausreißer.