🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) wins the Brazilian presidential runoff on October 25, 2026, against Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) (confirmed by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral or Reuters by October 26, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. September 2026 · Predicted for 25. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

57%

Polymarket sees Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at approximately 40% each in the first round (October 4), consistent with the open platform prediction of a runoff. Factors favouring Lula: incumbent governmental networks, proven PT coalition, Flávio Bolsonaro's weaker profile (less evangelical affinity, lower institutional anchorage than Jair). In 2022, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff 50.9% to 49.1%. Uncertainty remains: polarised electorate, ~30% evangelical bloc potentially mobilisable as a bloc. Own calibration: ~57%.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket Brasilien-Wahl 1. Runde: Lula ~40 %, Flávio Bolsonaro ~40 % (Stand 25.09.2026)
TSE Brasilien-Stichwahl 2022: Lula 50,9 % vs. Jair Bolsonaro 49,1 % (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral)
Eurasia Review 24.09.2026: 'Brazil at the Crossroads – The October 2026 Election'

Verdict: Hit

Lula (PT) gewann die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober 2026 gegen Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) mit 51,79 % zu 48,21 % der gültigen Stimmen (64.256.232 vs. 59.826.041 Stimmen). Der Sieg wurde noch am selben Tag vom Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) offiziell bestätigt. Damit trat die Vorhersage exakt ein. Bemerkenswert: Flávio Bolsonaro hatte den ersten Wahlgang am 4. Oktober noch mit 47,03 % zu 45,16 % vor Lula gewonnen — die Stichwahl kehrte das Ergebnis um, was die Vorhersage korrekt antizipiert hatte. Quellen: TSE (tse.jus.br), Al Jazeera, CNBC, Vatican News, Infomoney.

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