🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Likud (Netanyahu) remains the largest single party in the Knesset after the Israeli parliamentary election on October 27, 2026 (confirmed by Reuters or Haaretz by October 28, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. October 2026 · Predicted for 27. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

58%

Israel holds the 26th Knesset election on October 27, 2026 (120 seats, 3.25% threshold). The MEF Israel Vote Poll of Polls (October 16, 2026, fieldwork Sept 30–Oct 14) projects Likud at 23 seats and Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) at 22 seats — a razor-thin margin. Channel 14 (Oct 12) gives Likud 29 vs Yashar 20; Channel 13 (Oct 14) shows Yashar 20 vs Likud 18. Polymarket implies 57% for Netanyahu remaining in office (inverted from 43% 'Netanyahu leaves office by year-end'). Neither bloc reaches the 61-seat majority (right bloc ~54, opposition ~53, Arab parties ~13). Confirmed as largest single party by official count on October 27–28, 2026.

Data basis for this prediction

MEF Israel Vote Poll of Polls: Likud 23, Yashar 22 Sitze (Stand 16. Oktober 2026, Feldzeit 30. Sept.–14. Okt.)
Polymarket: Netanyahu bleibt im Amt 57 % (16. Oktober 2026)
Channel 14 Umfrage: Likud 29, Yashar 20 Sitze (12. Oktober 2026); Channel 13: Yashar 20, Likud 18 (14. Oktober 2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 Israeli legislative election (abgerufen 17. Oktober 2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Exit-Polls zeigen Yashar als stärkste Einzelfraktion (22–23 Sitze) vor Likud (19–21 Sitze). Likud bleibt nicht stärkste Einzelfraktion. Quelle: Yahoo News, Times of Israel.

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