🏛️ Politics
· Next Month
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) wins the most seats in the Israeli Knesset election on October 27, 2026
Probability
47%
Israel holds Knesset elections on October 27, 2026. Current polls (Poll of Polls via israelvote.meforum.org) show a tight race: Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar Party) is the closest individual challenger at ~26 projected seats, while Likud shows slightly declining numbers. However, the active war context (Gaza, Lebanon, Syria) structurally favors Netanyahu — security-minded voters historically trend right during crises. Right-religious coalition partners (Smotrich/Ben-Gvir: ~15+ seats) still prefer Netanyahu as PM, making Likud the most likely anchor of a right-wing bloc. The race is the most open in years; no explicit Polymarket seat-distribution market found. Calibrated at 47% based on poll average and historical pattern.
Data basis for this prediction
- Israelische Knesset-Wahl: 27. Oktober 2026 bestätigt; Eisenkot (Yashar) ~26 Sitze, Likud leicht rückläufig (Wikipedia / Israel Democracy Institute, Oktober 2026)
- Israel Poll of Polls 2026: offenste Wahl seit Jahren, Kopf-an-Kopf zwischen Netanyahu und Eisenkot-Lager (israelvote.meforum.org, Oktober 2026)
- Q4 2026 Geopolitik: Israelische Militäroperationen Libanon/Syrien dominieren Vorwahlperiode (New Lines Institute, Oktober 2026)
- Smotrich/Ben-Gvir-Block: ~15+ Sitze, bevorzugter Koalitionspartner für Likud (Arab Center DC, Oktober 2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Laut israelischen Exit-Polls (Kan, Channel 12/13) gewann Yashar (Eizenkot) mit 22–23 Sitzen mehr Mandate als Likud mit nur 19–21 Sitzen. Likud ist nicht stärkste Einzelfraktion. Quelle: Yahoo News Exit-Poll-Headline, Times of Israel.