🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (Sept 20, 2026): Die Linke wins more than 9.0% of valid votes

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 16. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

73%

The PolitPro polling aggregate for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows Die Linke at 10.6% as of September 15/16, 2026; pollytix (September 8/9) shows 12%. The party average is ~11%, well above the 9% threshold. With typical polling errors of ±2–3 pp for East German state elections and a 2 pp buffer between mean and threshold, the probability is approximately 73%. No Polymarket market available; calibrated via polling aggregate.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Aggregat Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Stand 15./16.09.2026: Die Linke 10,6 %
pollytix MV-Umfrage 08.–09.09.2026: Die Linke 12 %
PolitPro Gesamttrend MV: AfD 36,6 %, SPD 31,9 %, Linke 10,6 %, CDU 7,3 %
Historischer Polling-Fehler ostdeutsche Landtagswahlen: Median ±2,0–2,5 Pp (Wahlforschungsdaten)

Verdict: Miss

Die Linke erzielte bei der Landtagswahl MV am 20.09.2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichen Endergebnis nur 6,5 % der Stimmen – deutlich unter der Schwelle von 9,0 %. Die Polls überschätzten die Partei erheblich (PolitPro-Aggregat: 10,6 %, pollytix: 12 %); der tatsächliche Wert lag rund 4–5 Pp unter dem Umfrage-Mittelwert. Das entspricht einem Polling-Fehler, der weit außerhalb des angenommenen ±2–3-Pp-Rahmens lag. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), ZDFheute-Grafiken zur MV-Wahl 2026, statistiken-aktuell.de.

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