Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election (Sept 20, 2026): CDU Receives Less Than 10.0% of Votes
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
All current polls show the CDU in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern well below 10%: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (Sept 11) 7%, Infratest dimap (Sept 10) 7%, INSA (Sept 10) 7%, pollytix (Sept 10) 6%. Only outlier: Forsa (Sept 2) at 10%. Dawum aggregate: ~7.2%. The CDU has collapsed following repeated leadership crises and losses to both the AfD and SPD. Exceeding 10% would require a positive polling error of at least +2.8 percentage points relative to the average.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: CDU 7% MV (11.09.2026)
- Infratest dimap: CDU 7% MV (10.09.2026)
- INSA: CDU 7% MV (10.09.2026)
- dawum.de MV Umfragen-Aggregat (Stand 11.09.2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die CDU erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20.09.2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis nur 4,9% der Stimmen – deutlich unter der prognostizierten 10%-Schwelle. Sie verfehlte damit sogar den Einzug in den Landtag (5%-Hürde), was einem historischen Tief entspricht. Die Vorhersage (< 10%) trat damit klar ein. Quellen: bpb.de (https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565/landtagswahl-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026-afd-staerkste-kraft-cdu-verfehlt-einzug-in-den-landtag/), Landtag MV (https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis)
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