🏛️ Politics · Next Week

MV State Election (Sep 20, 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails the 5% threshold and does not enter the Schwerin parliament

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

85%

All available polls for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern place BSW clearly below the five-percent threshold: INSA (Sep 8–15, 2026) at 3%, Pollytix (Sep 8–9) at 5%, with the aggregated election trend at 4.2%. Unlike Berlin, BSW lacks the organisational roots in MV; clearing the threshold would require a massive polling error across all institutes. No Polymarket coverage; calibrated on polling aggregation.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage MV (8.–15. Sept. 2026): AfD 37 %, SPD 35 %, Die Linke 10 %, CDU 7 %, BSW 3 %
Pollytix-Umfrage MV (8.–9. Sept. 2026): AfD 36 %, SPD 30 %, Die Linke 12 %, CDU 6 %, BSW 5 %
Wahltrend MV aggregiert (Stand 17. Sept. 2026): BSW 4,2 % — klar unter 5 %-Hürde (Europe Elects / Wikipedia)

Verdict: Hit

BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) erhielt bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20.09.2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 4,8 % der Stimmen und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5-%-Hürde. Die Vorhersage trat damit ein. Die Polls lagen sehr nah am tatsächlichen Ergebnis (Wahltrend 4,2 %, Pollytix 5 %, tatsächlich 4,8 %). Auch CDU (4,9 %) verfehlte den Einzug. In den Landtag zogen AfD (38,2 %), SPD (35,5 %), Linke (6,5 %) und Grüne (5,7 %) ein. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), Wikipedia: Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026, wahlrecht.de.

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