🏛️ Politics · Next Month

State election Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (September 20, 2026): Voter turnout exceeds 65.0% (confirmed by State Returning Officer MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 7. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

78%

At the 2021 MV state election, voter turnout was 70.8% – the highest since 1998, well above 65%. The 2026 election is highly polarized: the AfD is polling as the strongest party at ~28% according to WahlForecast.de and Dawum.de, with the SPD at ~22%. Such a contest historically generates high mobilization both by AfD supporters and in counter-mobilization. Historically, turnout at state elections with clear anti-AfD mobilization dynamics (e.g., Saxony 2024: 74.4%) has been well above 65%. No prediction market found for turnout; probability based on historical data: 78%.

Data basis for this prediction

Statista: Wahlbeteiligung Landtagswahl MV 2021 – 70,8 % (Stand 7.9.2026)
WahlForecast.de: Landtagswahl MV 2026 – AfD ~28 %, SPD ~22 % (Stand 7.9.2026)
Dawum.de: MV Wahlumfragen 2026 – Aktuelle Sonntagsfragen (Stand 7.9.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Wahlbeteiligung bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 lag bei 78,1 % – deutlich über der vorhergesagten Schwelle von 65 %. Die Vorhersage trat damit klar ein. Die hohe Mobilisierung wurde durch das starke Abschneiden der AfD (38,2 %) und die intensive Gegenmobilisierung erklärt, was den historischen Trend bestätigte. Quelle: Wikipedia (2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election), wahlrecht.de, statistiken-aktuell.de.

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