Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): SPD receives more than 28.0% of votes (confirmed by state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls (WirtschaftsWoche / Stuttgarter Zeitung, September 2026) show SPD under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig at 34–37%, marginally behind AfD (37%). The prediction threshold of 28.0% is 6–9 percentage points below the polling figure; even a substantial polling error would barely push SPD below 28%. No Polymarket market; estimate approximately 84%.
Data basis for this prediction
- WirtschaftsWoche MV Landtagswahl-Umfragen: SPD 34–37%, AfD 37% (September 2026, wiwo.de)
- Stuttgarter Zeitung: SPD holt auf, AfD vorn in MV (September 2026)
- DAWUM.de Landtagswahl MV 2026 Umfragetrend
Verdict: Hit
Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 35,5 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Vorhersage-Schwelle von 28,0 %. Die AfD wurde mit 38,2 % stärkste Kraft. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis) sowie politpro.eu und Wikipedia zur Wahl 2026.
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