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Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): SPD wins more than 28.0% of votes cast (confirmed by state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Probability
73%
Infratest dimap (early September 2026) puts the SPD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at ~32%, Forsa at approximately 28–30%. All available polls show SPD above the 28% mark. AfD leads at ~35% (Infratest) to ~37% (Forsa). Historically, polls in eastern Germany slightly underestimate the AfD and overestimate the SPD — an SPD result somewhat below the current polling average (~32%) is more likely than an overperformance. Even with a 3–4 point discount, SPD would still clear 28%. Already covered: AfD above 30%, CDU below 12%, BSW below 5%. No market odds; own estimate: ~73%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap MV poll, early Sep 2026: AfD ~35%, SPD ~32% (infratest-dimap.de)
- Forsa MV poll Sep 2026: AfD leads SPD by ~9 points (Wahlrecht.de / WiWo.de, Sep 2026)
- 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election poll tracker (Wikipedia / Wahl-Radar.de, Sep 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 35,5 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 28,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat damit klar ein. Quellen: Landtag MV (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), ZDFheute, Wikipedia zur Landtagswahl MV 2026.