🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): SPD receives more than 20.0% of votes cast (confirmed by MV State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

63%

The SPD is the incumbent governing party in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Current polls (wahlrecht.de/dawum.de, August–September 2026) show SPD at ~22%. Historical anchor: SPD received 39.6% in MV in 2021 – even with a 15–17pp federal-level drop, a result above 20% remains likely. Caution: AfD (open: >32%) may draw SPD voters, and BSW remains strong at ~14%. Implied probability from poll aggregation: ~63%.

Data basis for this prediction

Wahlrecht.de: Sonntagsfrage Landtagswahl MV #ltwmv (September 2026)
Dawum.de: Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Umfragen 2026 (abgerufen 8. September 2026)
Statista: Sonntagsfrage Landtagswahl MV (August/September 2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (abgerufen 8. September 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis des Landeswahlleiters MV 35,5 % der abgegebenen Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 20,0 %. Die Vorhersage ist damit klar eingetreten. Die SPD wurde zweitstärkste Partei hinter der AfD (38,2 %) und errang 29 von 71 Mandaten. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (Vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), laiv-mv.de (Landeswahlleiter MV), strelitzius.com (21.09.2026).

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