🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026): FDP fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the MV Landtag (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 7. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

75%

The FDP won 5.8% in MV's 2021 state election, barely clearing the threshold. Since then, the party has seen dramatic national decline: the coalition split (end-2024) and failure to clear the 5% threshold in the Bundestag election 2025. Current national polls place FDP at ~3–4%; in eastern Germany – where FDP has historically polled lower – results are likely weaker still. This platform already predicts FDP failing the 5% threshold in the simultaneous Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (also 20 September). MV as a more rural eastern state has historically delivered even lower FDP results. No MV-specific polls found for September 2026.

Data basis for this prediction

Bundestagswahl 2025: FDP scheitert bundesweit an der 5-%-Hürde (tagesschau.de / Bundeswahlleiter)
Politpro.eu: FDP national bei ~3–4 % in aktuellen Bundesumfragen (Stand Mai–September 2026)
Statistisches Amt MV: MV Landtagswahl 2021 Ergebnis FDP 5,8 % (historische Baseline)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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