🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): Die Linke receives more than 8.5% of valid votes cast (confirmed by state returning officer MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

78%

Current polls consistently show Die Linke in MV well above the 8.5% threshold: INSA (Sep 8–15) 10%, Infratest dimap (Sep 9) 9%, Forsa (Aug 21–27) 11%, pollytix (Sep 8–9) 12%; weighted trend average 10.2%. Despite the BSW split (2024), Die Linke retains a stable voter base in MV. The 1.7 percentage point buffer between threshold and poll average acts as a cushion; even a full standard deviation downward swing (±2–3pp historical) would leave the result above 8.5%. Polymarket has no dedicated line for Die Linke's vote share; the MV election-winner market has SPD at 51 cents (leading).

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage MV 08.–15.09.2026: Die Linke 10 % (EuropeElects / politpro.eu)
Infratest dimap MV 09.09.2026: Die Linke 9 % (Wikipedia / politpro.eu)
pollytix MV 08.–09.09.2026: Die Linke 12 %; Forsa Aug. 2026: 11 % (EuropeElects)
Polymarket MV-Wahlsieger-Markt: SPD 51 Ct, AfD 48,5 Ct (Stand 17.09.2026)

Verdict: Miss

Die Linke erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis (Landtag MV / Landeswahlleiter) 6,5 % der Stimmen – deutlich unter der Schwelle von 8,5 %. Die Partei verpasste damit die Erwartung trotz Umfragen, die sie im Schnitt bei ~10 % sahen. Der tatsächliche Wert lag rund 3,7 Prozentpunkte unter der Vorhersageschwelle. Quellen: https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis, https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2026/landtagswahl-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026.html, https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565/landtagswahl-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026-afd-staerkste-kraft-cdu-verfehlt-einzug-in-den-landtag/

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