🏛️ Politics · Next Week

State Election Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September 2026): Die Linke scores more than 8.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

77%

All current polls show Die Linke in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern clearly above the 8% mark: Infratest dimap (Sep 7–9): 9%; FG Wahlen/ZDF (Sep 7–10): 10%; INSA (Sep 1–8): 11%; Pollytix (Sep 8–9): 12%. No pollster places the party below 9%. Die Linke has a traditionally strong core electorate in MV, particularly in rural eastern areas. No Polymarket market available; poll consistency implies ~77% probability.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap LänderTREND MV September 2026: Die Linke 9 % (7.–9. Sep 2026, ARD)
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF: MV-Umfrage – Linke 10 % (7.–10. Sep 2026)
Wahlrecht.de: Umfragen Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026, alle Institute (Stand 11.09.2026)

Verdict: Miss

Die Linke erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis (Landeswahlleitung MV) nur 6,5 % der Zweitstimmen – deutlich unter der vorhergesagten Schwelle von 8,0 %. Die Partei verlor gegenüber 2021 erheblich und zog mit nur 5 Sitzen in den Landtag ein. Die Vorhersage scheiterte trotz konsistent hoher Umfragewerte (9–12 %), weil die Partei am Wahltag einen massiven Stimmenverlust erlitt. Quellen: Landtag MV (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), statistiken-aktuell.de, wahlrecht.de.

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