Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026): CDU receives less than 9.0% of votes cast
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
All recent polls for the MV state election put the CDU at 6–7%: Infratest dimap (7–9 Sep): 7%, FG Wahlen (7–10 Sep): 7%, INSA (1–8 Sep): 7%. The 9.0% threshold sits well above the entire polling band, offering a ~2pp buffer. No outlier poll suggests a CDU result above 8%. Threshold is conservatively set to account for polling error.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap (7.–9. Sep 2026): CDU 7 % in MV (wahlrecht.de)
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (7.–10. Sep 2026): CDU 7 % in MV (wahlrecht.de)
- INSA (1.–8. Sep 2026): CDU 7 % in MV (wahlrecht.de)
Verdict: Hit
Die CDU erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 lediglich 4,9 % der Stimmen – weit unterhalb der vorhergesagten Schwelle von 9,0 %. Damit verfehlte die CDU sogar die 5-%-Hürde und zog nicht in den Landtag ein, ein historisches Novum. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), bpb.de (Hintergrund aktuell), Wikipedia (Landtagswahl MV 2026).
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