Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election (20 September 2026): CDU achieves less than 12.0% of votes cast (confirmed by MV state returning officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 9. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
PolitPro Trend MV (9 Sep 2026): CDU 9% – a historic low, massively down from 13.3% in the 2021 state election. AfD dominates (~32%), SPD is second (~22%). The 12% threshold sits 3 percentage points above the trend; only an exceptionally strong last-minute CDU mobilization could upset this prediction. Calibration: 74%.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Election Trend Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: CDU 9 % (9. September 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election – CDU-Ergebnis 2021: 13,3 %
Verdict: Hit
Die CDU erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 lediglich 4,9 % der Stimmen – weit unter der prognostizierten Schwelle von 12,0 %. Sie verpasste sogar die 5 %-Hürde und schied erstmals in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik aus einem Landesparlament aus. AfD (38,2 %) und SPD (35,5 %) dominierten das Ergebnis. Die Vorhersage traf also deutlich ein; der tatsächliche Einbruch fiel noch drastischer aus als erwartet. Quellen: Wikipedia (Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026), bpb.de Hintergrund aktuell, Axios 21.09.2026.
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