🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

MV State Election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) fails the 5% threshold and does not enter the Schwerin state parliament

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

86%

The latest polls for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election show BSW at only 3% (INSA, circa September 15, 2026) and 4% (Forsa, circa September 12, 2026) – well below the 5% threshold. BSW's nationwide decline since its 2024 peak has significantly weakened its support in eastern Germany. No available prediction market instrument provides a direct BSW-MV signal; analogues from Thuringia, Saxony, and other German state elections in 2025–2026 support a probability of ~86%.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage LTW MV: BSW 3 % (Stand ca. 15. September 2026, wahlrecht.de)
Forsa-Umfrage LTW MV: BSW 4 % (Stand ca. 12. September 2026, wahlrecht.de)
Wikipedia: Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026 – Umfrageübersicht (abgerufen 19.09.2026)
BSW-Ergebnisse Thüringen/Sachsen/Brandenburg 2024 und Folgewahlen 2025 als Analogbasis

Verdict: Hit

Das BSW erhielt bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 genau 4,8 % der Stimmen und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5-%-Sperrklausel. Das Bündnis zog folglich nicht in den Schweriner Landtag ein. Die Vorhersage trat präzise ein – das Ergebnis lag sogar noch leicht unter dem schlechtesten Umfragewert (INSA: 3 %, Forsa: 4 %). Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election', politpro.eu Endergebnis MV 2026.

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