🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 32.0% of valid votes (confirmed by MV state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 7. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

82%

Infratest dimap (September 3, 2026) shows the AfD in MV at 35%, Forsa (September 2, 2026) at 37% – both institutes are more than 3 points above the 32% threshold. The AfD has more than doubled its share since the 2021 election (16.7%), benefiting from deep dissatisfaction over energy policy, migration, and structural economic change. No Polymarket market available; estimate from polling consensus. For context: the existing forecast 'AfD becomes strongest party' is consistent; this forecast specifies the expected magnitude.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap: AfD 35 %, SPD 32 % in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (3. September 2026)
Forsa: AfD 37 %, SPD 28 % in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2. September 2026)
wahlrecht.de: Umfragen Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern – Sonntagsfrage (September 2026)
Wikipedia: '2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election' – AfD more than doubled vs. 2021 result

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 38,2 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 32,0 %. Die AfD wurde damit stärkste Kraft vor der SPD (35,5 %). Quellen: Landtag MV (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), wahlrecht.de, Wikipedia DE.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026