Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 32.0% of valid votes (confirmed by MV state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 7. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Infratest dimap (September 3, 2026) shows the AfD in MV at 35%, Forsa (September 2, 2026) at 37% – both institutes are more than 3 points above the 32% threshold. The AfD has more than doubled its share since the 2021 election (16.7%), benefiting from deep dissatisfaction over energy policy, migration, and structural economic change. No Polymarket market available; estimate from polling consensus. For context: the existing forecast 'AfD becomes strongest party' is consistent; this forecast specifies the expected magnitude.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap: AfD 35 %, SPD 32 % in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (3. September 2026)
- Forsa: AfD 37 %, SPD 28 % in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2. September 2026)
- wahlrecht.de: Umfragen Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern – Sonntagsfrage (September 2026)
- Wikipedia: '2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election' – AfD more than doubled vs. 2021 result
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.