State election Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September 2026): AfD receives more than 30.0% of votes cast
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls (Wahlrecht.de, WirtschaftsWoche, early September 2026) consistently show AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 35–37%. No prediction market signal found, but the data is unambiguous: even with a typical 2–4 point overstatement correction, the 30% threshold remains clearly achievable. The AfD has more than doubled compared to the 2021 result (16.7%). Confirmed by state returning officer MV or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wahlrecht.de/Umfragen MV, Stand: Anfang September 2026: AfD 35–37 %
- WirtschaftsWoche MV-Wahlanalyse, 10. September 2026: AfD führt deutlich, SPD holt auf
- Wikipedia – 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election: AfD 2021: 16,7 %; aktuell ~36 %
Verdict: Hit
Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichen Endergebnis 38,2 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 30,0 %. Damit trat die Vorhersage klar ein. Die AfD wurde stärkste Kraft vor der SPD (35,5 %), während CDU (4,9 %) und FDP (1,0 %) an der 5-%-Hürde scheiterten. Quellen: Landtag MV (https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), bpb.de, Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_state_election).
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