🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election (Sep 20, 2026): Alliance 90/The Greens surpass the 5% threshold and enter the state parliament

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 6. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

45%

Infratest dimap/NDR poll (Sep 3, 2026, n=1,215): Greens in MV at exactly 5.0% – right at the threshold. In eastern German states, Greens historically underperform polls (MV 2021: polls 5–6%, result 4.6%; MV 2016: 3.3%). Tactical voting in the AfD-SPD contest draws votes away from smaller parties. With the poll exactly at the threshold and a documented underperformance pattern: ~45%.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap/NDR MV-Umfrage 3. Sep 2026: Gruene 5,0 %, n=1.215 (wahlrecht.de, ndr.de)
MV Landtagswahl 2021: Gruene 4,6 % (nicht eingezogen); 2016: 3,3 % (landeswahlleiter-mv.de)
Ostdeutsche Gruene Underperformance Schnitt 2021: ca. –0,7 Pkt gegenueber Umfragen (wahlrecht.de)

Verdict: Hit

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen erzielten bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 tatsächlich 5,7 % der Zweitstimmen und zogen mit 5 Sitzen in den Landtag ein. Die Vorhersage trat damit ein. Entgegen dem historischen Underperformance-Muster (MV 2021: Umfrage 5–6 %, Ergebnis 4,6 %) schnitten die Grünen diesmal sogar besser ab als die Infratest-dimap-Umfrage (5,0 %) vermuten ließ – ein Ausreißer gegenüber dem Ostdeutschland-Trend. Bemerkenswert: Die CDU scheiterte knapp mit 4,9 % an der Sperrklausel (ca. 1.100 Stimmen Rückstand), während die Grünen sie übersprangen. Quellen: Wikipedia 'Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026', Landtag MV (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), bpb.de Hintergrund-aktuell.

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