⚽ Sports · Next Week

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma–Lease a Bike, DEN) wins Stage 20 of the Tour de France 2026 (Bourg-d'Oisans–Alpe d'Huez via Col de Sarenne, 25 July 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. July 2026 · Predicted for 25. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

30%

Stage 20 (170 km, 5,450m elevation via Croix de Fer, Télégraphe, Galibier, and Sarenne into Alpe d'Huez) is the hardest mountain stage of the 2026 Tour. Tadej Pogačar (UAE, yellow jersey) is predicted as Stage 19 winner (first Alpe d'Huez, July 24); Vingegaard must attack as GC runner-up the next day. The Dane has historically won stages on comparable HC summit finishes. Bookmaker odds imply ~28–30% for Vingegaard in Stage 20 (Pogačar favoured ~35–40%). Cyclingnews GC standings: Pogačar in yellow (19.07.2026).

Data basis for this prediction

Cyclingstage.com: TdF 2026 Etappe 20 – Bourg-d'Oisans–Alpe d'Huez, 5.450 m Höhengewinn
Cyclingnews: Pogačar in Gelb nach Sprintetappe (TdF 2026 GC Standings, 19.07.2026)
Buchmacherquoten aggregiert: Vingegaard ~28–30 % für Etappe-20-Sieg (Oddschecker, Stand 19.07.2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Jonas Vingegaard stürzte in Etappe 15 der Tour de France 2026 (~19. Juli) und gab das Rennen mit Schlüsselbeinbruch auf. Er ist aus dem Rennen ausgeschieden und kann Etappe 20 nicht gewinnen. Bestätigt durch: TNT Sports, FloBikes, Cycling News, Visma-Lease a Bike Teamwebsite.

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