⚽ Sports · Next Week

Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck, BEL) wins TdF 2026 Stage 21 (Thoiry → Paris/Champs-Élysées, 133 km, July 27, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. July 2026 · Predicted for 27. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

40%

TdF 2026 Stage 21 covers 133 km from Thoiry to Paris, with three ascents of the cobbled Butte Montmartre (1.1 km, avg. 6.5%) before the Champs-Élysées sprint. Jasper Philipsen is described as 'the outright favourite and most complete green jersey candidate' (Tips.GG, Cyclingnews), backed by Alpecin-Deceuninck's sprint train. The Montmartre climb adds uncertainty for pure sprinters. Main rivals: Tim Merlier, Biniam Girmay, Olav Kooij. GC is settled — Pogačar leads by 3:36, no tactical interference expected.

Data basis for this prediction

Wikipedia: Tour de France 2026, Stage 12–21 — Etappe 21: Thoiry→Champs-Élysées, 133 km, 4× Kat.-4-Anstiege
Tips.GG: 'Philipsen outright favourite and most complete green jersey candidate' (tips.gg, Tour 2026)
Cyclingnews: Tour de France 2026 Stage 21 Preview (cyclingnews.com)
TdF-Gesamtwertung Stand Etappe 14: Pogačar +3:36 vor Vingegaard (procyclingstats.com, nbcsports.com)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Etappe 21 (Champs-Élysées) gewann Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin Premier Tech), NICHT Jasper Philipsen. Philipsen wurde Zweiter. Quelle: Cyclingnews, CyclingUpToDate, vavel.com.

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